Written declaration on the Situation in the Arab world and North Africa

Written declaration on the Situation in the Arab world and North Africa

After months of intervention and non action, wishful thinking and short-sightedness, strategic confusion and tactical opportunism, an assessment of the spring 2011 developments in the Arab world and North Africa shows the following:
 
1. The events are a replica of the geostrategic quake which took place in Eastern and Central Europe in 1989;

2. Notwithstanding the specificity of each country concerned, the general refusal of the people to accept authority (whatever its form) any longer constitutes the common triggering factor;

3. Similarly to 1989, the transformation was not prepared nor initiated by the Euro-Atlantic democracies;

4. The Euro-Atlantic players try, similarly, to become protagonists by post-factum exporting their democratic model;

5. As usual, the Euro-Atlantic players, desirous to externalize their internal crises or to fulfil their national geopolitical ambitions, apply multiple standards, thus undermining the coherence of any future regional policy;

6. The external military intervention can only deteriorate the equilibria and complicate the situation.

Against this background, one can understand why, after unwisely trying to behave as an international cop, the EU, too divided to be strong and too nervous to be prudent, has no perspective, but only hope that things will eventually end well. Unfortunately, hope is not a policy!